The FIFA World Cup is one of the most watched televised events in the world. Countless countries attempt to qualify through matches to compete in the World Cup. And the countries that qualify each have the same probability of winning (if you don’t believe in referee bias).
It’s hard to guess which country’s team will win the World Cup when it begins. Bets have been made when the World Cup comes around, and those bets show how uneducated some people are. The probability of a team winning the World Cup can be boosted based on their past and present performance, players, and the statistical data of their wins and losses. Based on the mentioned factors, we’ve compiled a list of teams more likely to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
CROATIA
Based on past performances, Croatia has the potential to make it far through the international tournament. Even though they have well-known players, like Luka Modrić. The 36-year-old continues to play in La Liga, one of the five top European leagues at Real Madrid and one of the top football clubs in the world. Although there is a chance of Modrić being absent due to age and possible degradation in playing quality, there are others in top leagues, such as Joško Gvardiol and Mateo Kovačić both playing at Manchester City, in the Premier League, another league in the top five of all European leagues. But, we cannot forget Dominik Livaković, who proved worthy in all games, especially during the penalty shootouts against Japan and Brazil in the Round of 16 and Quarterfinals.
Dominik Livaković at work during the penalty shootout of the Round of 16 of the 2022 WC against Japan
FRANCE
France is one of the most skilled and elite national teams after playing extraordinarily well in the 2018 and 2022 FIFA World Cups. Most people know of Kylian Mbappé. He scored an incredible hat-trick and equalized the match against Argentina in the 2022 FIFA World Cup Final. He also helped France win the 2018 FIFA World Cup. At just 25 years old, Mbappé can play in both the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2030 FIFA World Cup, with energy still left to outperform a ton of other teams.
Although Antoine Griezmann and Olivier Giroud have retired, Mbappé is not alone on the attack. PSG forwards Kolo Muani, Bradley Barcola, and Ousmane Dembélé can aid in France’s wide and central attack. Not only that, but to replace Griezmann’s attacking-midfielder position, Chelsea forward, Christopher Nkunku is a threat with his physical and dribbling capabilities even though he had multiple injury setbacks last season, not making him much of a star player for the Blues in his first season.
Providing support in the midfield areas, Eduardo Camavinga and Aurélien Tchouaméni from Real Madrid have performed quite well in the central and defensive positions. PSG and Bayern Munchen also provide Warren Zaïre-Emery and Michael Olise (though, Olise is more of a wide-attacker/winger) for squad-depth in this French squad. It has yet to be determined, but if he still has the energy, Al-Ittihad midfielder N’Golo Kanté is a strong player in his position. At his former club, Chelsea, he had the strength and speed to dominate the midfield position and win the ball back. He helped them win countless trophies, especially the most prestigious one, the UEFA Champions League back in the 2020-2021 season.
France’s defense should also not be doubted. On the left, full-back, Theo Hernández is regarded as one of the world’s best in his position and has a few years left in him to lead this younger national team. His twin, Lucas Hernández, Jules Koundé, William Saliba, and Ibrahim Konaté all have proved their worthiness in club-level football and will form a strong, defensive wall against any opponent. They also have a deep squad depth with Dayot Upamecano, Jonathan Clauss, and Wesley Fofana.
French National Team during the Euros 2024
SPAIN
Spain has the potential to become a dominant soccer superpower by the time the 2026 FIFA World Cup rolls around. Spain previously won the 2010 FIFA World Cup thanks to strikers like David Villa who helped Spain win over the Netherlands in the final 1-0. As many know, David Villa retired. But many of the new generation of Spanish soccer players possess a bright future that helps them give an advantage to Spain.
Spain’s dominance in the Euros this year was in no part thanks to many of its star players like Fabian Ruiz and Lemine Yamal. But many other players like Alvaro Morates have carried some heavy weight for the soccer team.
Olmo plays for Barcelona and in this year’s La Liga premiere has scored 5 goals so far. Barcelona has won a lot of consecutive matches in this year’s La Liga, although they recently lost 1-0 against Real Sociedad.
Fabian Ruiz is also another potential underdog for the Spanish midfielder squad. Although Ruiz only scored two goals in the entire Euros tournament, Ruiz has an exceptional passing accuracy, with 90.17% passing accuracy. Ruiz plays for the Paris Saint-Germain team, which has won consecutive matches recently.
Lamine Yamal is another player for good reason. At only the age of 16, Lamine was able to strike a goal against France in the Euro tournament with the help of his teammate Nico Williams. Yamal plays for FC Barcelona, and like Olmo, plays in the La Liga Premier League. When the 2026 World Cup rolls around, Yamal will be old enough to prove to the world what he’s been able to master within the past two years since his achievements in this year’s Euros.
Spanish National Team: Winners of the Euro 2024
GERMANY
Yes, they may not have succeeded against Japan, but hear us out. “Die Mannschaft” or the German national football team, has good quality in all positions. Young players like Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala have increased in popularity playing in the Bundesliga with Musiala playing at Bayern Munchen and Wirtz at Bayer 04 Leverkusen. With their strong offense, they also have wonderful defensive players ranging from Antonio Rüdiger to Niklas Süle. Let’s also not forget our goalkeeper position. After Manuel Neuer retired from the DFB, Marc-André ter Stegen has continued to perform well at 32 years of age. He may be a bit old, and nowhere close to the level of prime Neuer or his sweeper-keeper skills, but he remains a top-quality keeper for both FC Barcelona and Germany. However, in return, former stars Toni Kroos, Thomas Müller, and İlkay Gündoğan have retired from international duty and will no longer contribute to Germany’s future global success.
German National Team for the Euro 2024
ARGENTINA
Argentina has the capability to win the World Cup back to back thanks to their team. And yes, most people would assume they would be the top scorers of the tournament, which isn’t far fetched. Argentina recently won the Copa América this year thanks to a number of players like Emiliano Martinez and Ángel Di María. However, Lionel Messi, often regarded as one of the GOATs, carried the team to victory in the 2022 FIFA World Cup as well. And while Argentina is on track to acquiring the throne it once held, the star player Messi is succumbing to his age and soon retirement. Alongside Messi are other well-experienced players such as Alexis Mac Allister and Rodrigo De Paul. But Argentina has a number of young players like Enzo Fernandez and Julian Alvarez who are not only good midfielders and forward players respectively, but have won consecutive matches these past months. And of course to add balance to such an elite team, the defense consists of Cristian Romero Nicolás Otamendi in the center and Nicolás Tagliafico partnered with Nahuel Molina in the full-back positions.
This could help the Argentina team win back to back in the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Argentinian National Team: Winners of the Copa América 2024
MOROCCO
Morocco surprised the whole world when they were the first African nation to reach the quarter-finals in the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Players like Youssef En-Nesyri and Hakim Ziyech scored remarkable goals, placing Morocco in a much bigger position in the tournament. In the midfield, Brahim Díaz from Real Madrid and Sofyan Amrabat of Fenerbahçe SK can provide much quality even though they are not starters for the Spanish and Turkish sides. But we cannot forget the amazing full-backs that Morocco have in their arsenal. Noussair Mazraoui, former Bayern Munich and Ajax star is not necessarily well-known. From his great quality at Ajax to the Bavarians purchasing him, and later on a signing of former Manchester United manager, Erik Ten Hag, he has proven to be an effective starter for the English Premier League side even though they’ve surprisingly performed poorly so far this season.
Moroccan National Team during the 2022 World Cup
FINAL ANALYSIS
Now that we’ve analyzed the teams most likely to win in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, we can make a prediction for who inevitably wins the final match and gets the trophy. Out of the list we’ve compiled, we’ve found that while Morocco has a potential chance to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, they are the least likely among the teams that we’ve listed. Croatia is the second least likely due to the team’s growing age since the aging of Luka Modrić. Germany might also be knocked out after Croatia due to the same reason. That leaves us with Spain, France, and Argentina. And although France and Argentina are statistically favored to win (again), we believe Spain has the potential underdog in them to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup thanks to its lineup, their performances in the field, and their recent wins.
